1. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict: global economic and logistical implications
In October 2023, Palestinian Hamas announced a military operation against Israel, and Israel declared a state of war, after which the conflict escalated and continues to this day. The cross-border e-commerce market in the Middle East has been shaken, due to the distribution of major oil-producing countries in the surrounding area, which has brought more uncertainties to the rise in oil prices and inflation in Europe, and the surrounding countries have been forced to get involved in the war, and the logistics channels of land, sea, air and rail have been blocked.
On the maritime side, the war has led to the closure of some seaports and the suspension of services by shipping companies, threatening the navigation of the Suez Canal, while on the air side, the Israeli capital Tel Aviv airport has been bombed, many airlines have suspended their flights, and the busy routes between Western Europe, the Middle East and the Far East are also at risk.
2. Air Cargo: The market has recovered and rebounded steadily
(1) The air cargo market recovered
In 2023, driven by e-commerce, air cargo demand and freight rates will rebound steadily in the second half of the year. According to IATA's latest forecast, air cargo traffic will contract by 3.8% in 2023, after falling by 8.2% in 2022, but will grow by 4.5% in 2024 on a second-half basis.
(2) The two major state-owned airlines are sprinting for IPOs
On March 28, China Southern Airlines announced that it planned to spin off its subsidiary China Southern Airlines Logistics to be listed on the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and on December 31, the IPO of China Southern Airlines Logistics on the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was accepted.
On September 27, the results of the 77th review meeting of the Listing Review Committee of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2023 showed that Air China Cargo's initial offering application was approved by the Listing Committee meeting, and the company intends to be listed on the main board of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
(3) Logistics giants have increased the construction of air cargo hubs
In March, the governor of Hunan Province and the chairman of Zhongtong expressed the hope that Zhongtong could cooperate with Hunan to form an air cargo company and build Hunan into a world-class air cargo hub.
In April, SF Hubei Ezhou Huahu Airport ushered in its first international cargo route, and the YTO Jiaxing global air logistics hub "Oriental Tiandi Port" officially started construction, which is expected to be completed and put into operation in two years.
3. Global shipping: twists and turns, Red Sea crisis
(1) The 2M Alliance was dissolved
On January 25, the world's largest container shipping company Mediterranean Shipping (MSC) and the second-largest Maersk Line (MSK) jointly announced that they will terminate the 2M alliance in January 2025, which means that the ten-year partnership between the two is officially dissolved.
(2) Maritime transport encountered the Red Sea crisis
In November, the Red Sea crisis erupted, which severely affected freight through the Suez Canal, and major shipping giants announced the suspension of Red Sea shipping. The Red Sea crisis has led to a sharp rise in ocean freight costs, with Xeneta analysts predicting that freight rates could rise by 100%.
4. UPS: Labor unions go on strike, lowering full-year forecasts
In May, UPS carried out a major rectification, strictly investigated the accounts of stealing heavy and running water in the illegal area, and a large number of illegal goods were seized.
In July, UPS USA was about to expire its five-year contract with the Teamsters Truckers Guild, and the two sides were at odds over the new contract, leading the union to threaten a strike. On July 25, UPS reached an agreement with the truck drivers in labor negotiations. In August, UPS lowered its full-year guidance and forecast global revenue of $93 billion in 2023 due to business losses and weak demand, down from its previous forecast of $97 billion.
In September, UPS announced an increase in shipping rates for 2024, with UPS Ground, UPS Air and international services increasing by an average of 5.9%, effective December 26, 2023.
5. Amazon: Make efforts end-to-end and build a logistics empire
In August, Amazon announced the relaunch of Amazon Shipping, which aims to compete with parcel giants such as UPS and FedEx. This service was initially launched in 2018 with a focus on building logistics capabilities from manufacturing to final delivery.
In September, Amazon announced the launch of the Amazon Supply Chain by Amazon overall solution, which is an end-to-end, fully automated supply chain service.
In November, according to Amazon insiders and internal documents, Amazon delivered more packages to American households in 2022 than UPS, and in 2020, its package volume surpassed FedEx, and Amazon is now the largest courier company in the United States.
6. Listing of logistics companies: J&T, Cainiao, SF Express, etc
On August 1, SF Express announced that the independent directors of SF Holdings agreed to SF's issuance of H shares and listing on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited. If it lands on the Hong Kong stock market, SF Express is expected to become the first company in the express delivery industry to be listed on the "A+H" share market at the same time.
On September 26, Alibaba announced that it planned to spin off Cainiao by way of Cainiao's independent listing on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. That night, Cainiao submitted its listing application documents to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and on October 10, the Securities and Futures Commission received the filing materials for Cainiao's IPO.
On October 27, J&T Express was listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with the stock code 1519, with a market value of over 100 billion Hong Kong dollars. J&T, which completed the listing in only 3 years, needs to face challenges such as seizing more market share and getting rid of losses.
In addition, Lecang Logistics, Fanyuan International, Sanshi Co., Ltd., Jiayuda, Xiyunda, Jinjiang Shipping and other enterprises have been successfully listed.
7. Cainiao Group: Launched "Global Five-Day Delivery"
On June 28, Cainiao Group announced the launch of its self-operated quality express delivery business - Cainiao Express, focusing on "Cainiao self-operated, high-quality express delivery, easy to use and inexpensive", with the best service in the industry and cost-effective in price. To do self-operated quality express delivery, rookies are no longer entangled.
On September 26, Cainiao and AliExpress launched the "Global 5-Day Delivery" international express delivery product, and consumers in the United Kingdom, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium and other countries can receive packages from China within 5 days. This is the industry's first large-scale cross-border e-commerce express product.
8. The country's first cross-border e-commerce air cargo station was put into operation at Shenzhen Airport
In August, Shenzhen Airport put into trial operation the country's first aviation cross-border e-commerce enterprise processing area tailored for cross-border e-commerce enterprises, which is the first air freight center in China that specializes in handling cross-border e-commerce goods and has the function of a cargo station, which can add 200,000 tons of air express and cross-border e-commerce cargo handling capacity to Shenzhen Airport every year, which will further promote the high-quality development of Shenzhen's foreign trade and cross-border e-commerce industry.
9. The all-freighter route of Yuntu-France opens the era of cross-border parcel express delivery
In August, Yuntu Logistics, a sub-brand of Zongteng Group, and Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport held the launch of the new aircraft of Yuntu's "Shenzhen-Paris" cargo route and the signing ceremony of Yuntu Shenzhen Airlines Cross-border Express Center.
The two sides jointly encrypt the "Shenzhen-Paris" freight line to six flights a week, adopt a double cargo aircraft operation model, and further improve the transportation timeliness of the Sino-French cross-border e-commerce air line, and the cross-border e-commerce parcels from Shenzhen Airport will be delivered to French consumers in 3 days at the earliest, opening the era of express delivery of cross-border special line small packages, which is a milestone cooperation in the field of cross-border e-commerce logistics.
10. Freight forwarding giants: start crazy mergers and acquisitions to accelerate resource integration
Following the wave of acquisitions and integrations in 2022, mergers and acquisitions in 2023 are still frenzied.
MSC: In August, it acquired a majority stake in AlisCargo Airlines, an air cargo company based in Milan, in October, it reached an agreement with Global Infrastructure Partners to acquire a stake in Italian passenger rail operator Italo, and in December, its wholly-owned subsidiary, SAS Shipping Forwarding Services, is in talks to acquire Clasquin, a medium-sized French freight forwarder.
Ceva Logistics: In December, it completed the acquisition of Stellar Value Chain, an Indian warehousing and transportation company.
DHL: In October, it signed an agreement to acquire a 100% controlling stake in Danzas AEI Emirates, a freight forwarding company in the Middle East.
In June, it acquired Morgan Cargo, a leading freight forwarding company in South Africa, and in November, it acquired Farrow, a Canadian customs brokerage company.
Geodis: In May, it acquired Southern Companies, a U.S. freight forwarder, and in June, it acquired ITS International Transport & Shipping Ltd., a Swiss freight forwarding company.
DB Schenker: In December, Deutsche Bahn AG announced the start of the sale process for its subsidiary DB Schenker.
In 2023, the global logistics pattern will be more turbulent, the rise of all forces, Chinese logistics companies are moving towards the international stage in an all-round way, and under multiple changes, the competition of cross-border logistics in 2024 will undoubtedly be more exciting!